Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering

Abstract The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations two different solar geoengineering methods (solar dimming and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection), that offset radiative forcing differences between SSP585 “no-mitigation” the modest mitigation SSP245 greenhouse gas scenarios, analyze impact on global mean thermosteric dynamic regional levels. By 2080–2099, both forms 36–41% (11.2–12.6 cm) SSP585, bringing SLR under in line with SSP245, but do not perfectly restore patterns. Some largest reductions (∼18 are densely populated eastern Northern America Japan vulnerable Arctic coastal permafrost.